Estimation and prediction of plastic waste annual input into the sea from China   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

BAI Mengyu  ZHU Lixin  AN Lihui  PENG Guyu  LI Daoji 《海洋学报(英文版)》2018,37(11):26-39

Marine plastic debris has been a pervasive issue since the last century, and research on its sources and fates plays a vital role in the establishment of mitigation measures. However, data on the quantity of plastic waste that enters the sea on a certain timescale remain largely unavailable in China. Here, we established a model using material flow analysis method based on life cycle assessment to follow plastic product from primary plastic to plastic waste with statistical data and monitoring data from accurate sources. This model can be used to estimate and forecast the annual input of plastic waste into the sea from China until 2020. In 2011, 0.547 3–0.751 5 million tons of plastic waste entered the seas in China, with a growth rate of 4.55% per year until 2017. And the amount will decrease to0.257 1 to 0.353 1 million tons in 2020 under the influence of governmental management. The amount of plastic waste discharged from coastal areas calculated in this study was much larger than that from river, thus it is suggested to strengthen the governance and control of plastic waste in coastal fishery activities in China in order to reduce the amount of marine plastic waste input.  相似文献   

基于区域监测站的BDS定轨策略分析     

王乐  黄观文  张勤  燕兴元  秦志伟  王利  崔博斌 《大地测量与地球动力学》2018,38(5):497-503

围绕影响轨道精度和实时性的5个要素（模糊度分类固定、测站数量、定轨弧长、太阳光压模型和多系统组合）展开研究，得出区域测站分布下的定轨优选策略。实验表明，选取中国区域27个均匀分布的地面区域监测站，利用72 h弧长观测数据，采用ECOM 5参数简化太阳光压摄动模型、BDS/GPS双系统联合定轨可达到较好的精度，其中GEO卫星轨道精度约291 cm，IGSO/MEO卫星轨道精度优于11 cm。若BDS单系统采用上述策略进行定轨，也可达到GEO卫星299 cm和IGSO/MEO卫星14.4 cm的近似等价定轨精度。  相似文献   

利用短期静态PPP结果反演海潮负荷位移     

魏国光  王琪洁  彭葳  郭良琦 《大地测量与地球动力学》2019,39(6):607-612

采用香港11个GPS测站的观测资料进行1 h、2 h、3 h和4h静态PPP解算，获得4组PPP坐标序列，利用调和分析求取11个测站处8个主要分潮的负荷位移参数（振幅和相位），将其与海潮模型计算的负荷位移参数进行对比，并比较分析PPP反演值与海潮模型值改正海潮负荷信号的效果。结果表明，垂直和水平方向上，不同PPP结果反演8个分潮的负荷位移分别具有约5 mm和7 mm的差异；PPP反演8个分潮垂向负荷位移优于全球海潮模型，但水平方向上的反演效果稍弱。  相似文献   

2011年日本东北大地震（M_W=9.0）震间与震前变形场特征及其对强震预测的启示          下载免费PDF全文

朱守彪 《地球物理学报》2020,63(2):427-439

强震震前(preseismic)动力学过程的研究对于地震预测具有十分重要的意义,但由于观测资料的限制,目前对强震前孕震区力学状态及其演化过程的认识还非常有限.2011年日本东北9.0特大地震(Tohoku-Oki)发生在GPS观测台站最为密集的地区,为研究特大地震震间(interseismic)与震前的变形状态提供了难得的机会.文中将利用日本东北大地震之前连续的GPS观测资料,分别计算震间与震前的速度场与变形场.通过对比分析发现,日本东北地区(Tohoku)震前的应变状态与震间的有很大的不同,震间的变形主要受到太平洋板块向日本海沟北西西向的俯冲挤压作用所控制,其主压应变以近东西向压缩为主,日本东北地区的运动方向与太平洋板块的运动方向大体一致.但是,临近地震前(震前)日本东北地区的运动方向发生了很大变化,震前30天的连续GPS观测结果显示,速度场的优势方向经常变换,间歇性地出现与太平洋板块运动方向相反的情况.这意味着震前孕震区的力学状态发生了很大的改变.这种变化可能与震前破裂成核或慢滑移及慢地震等过程有关,这些过程将加速或促进大地震的发生,从而为大地震的发生准备了力学条件.值得特别强调的是,这些现象都是可以通过直接观测能够发现的大地震之前的异常现象.由此可见,加密GPS站点进行连续观测,寻找震前变形异常区以及探索异常的物理机制对于地震预测预报有重要的科学意义.  相似文献   

Discussion of user-defined parameters for recursive subspace identification: Application to seismic response of building structures     

Shieh-Kung Huang  Jun-Da Chen  Kenneth J. Loh  Chin-Hsiung Loh 《地震工程与结构动力学》2020,49(15):1738-1757

Structural damage assessment under external loading, such as earthquake excitation, is an important issue in structural safety evaluation. In this regard, an appropriate data analysis and system identification technique is required to interpret the measured data and to identify the state of the structure. Generally, the recursive system identification algorithm is used. In this study, the recursive subspace identification (RSI) algorithm based on the matrix inversion lemma algorithm with oblique projection technique (RSI-Inversion-Oblique) is applied to investigate the time-varying dynamic characteristics. The user-defined parameters used in the RSI-Inversion-Oblique technique are carefully discussed, which include the size of the data Hankel matrix (i), model order to extract the physical modes, and forgetting factor (FF) to detect the time-varying system modal frequencies. Response data from the Northridge earthquake from the Sherman Oaks building (CSMIP) is used as an example to examine a systematic method to determine the suitable user-defined parameters in RSI. It is concluded that the number of rows in the data Hankel matrix significantly influences the identification of the time-varying fundamental modal frequency of the structure. An algorithmic model order selection method using the eigenvalue distribution of RSI-Inversion can detect the system modal frequencies at each appending data window without causing any abnormality.  相似文献   

基于离散Gabor变换的磁暴识别     

王静  贺巍  汪伟明 《地震地磁观测与研究》2020,41(4):64-69

以地磁秒数据为研究对象，通过离散Gabor变换将时域的地磁数据转换至二维时频面，提取Gabor变换谱图的均值和方差作为特征值，使用支持向量机实现地磁正常数据与磁暴干扰数据的自动分类识别。对5个地磁台的200组地磁秒数据进行计算分析，结果表明该方法对测试样本数据的识别率可达94%。  相似文献   

Supply and Demand Levels for Livestock and Poultry Products in the Chinese Mainland and the Potential Demand for Feed Grains     

HUANG Shaolin  LIU Aimin  LU Chunxia  MA Beibei 《资源与生态学报(英文版)》2020,11(5):475-482

The widening gap between the supply and demand levels for livestock and poultry products in the Chinese mainland poses a significant challenge to the secure supply of feed grains. Therefore, the accurate prediction of the demand potential for feed grains represents a key scientific issue for ensuring food security in the Chinese mainland. This study is based on an analysis of several factors, such as the Chinese mainland’s output, trade volume, apparent consumption of livestock and poultry products, and two different scenarios for predicting the future demand for feed grains are assessed. The results indicate that output and consumption of livestock and poultry products, as well as the country’s trade deficit and the pressure of the supply and demand balance with respect to these products, have been increasing in recent years. The analysis predicts that the demand for feed grains in the Chinese mainland will reach 425.5 or 389.6 million tons in 2030 based on the two scenarios. This finding indicates that with the increasing demand for livestock and poultry products in the Chinese mainland, the demand for feed grains will continue to increase, and the shortfall in feed grains and raw materials will expand further, especially dependence on external sources of protein-rich feed grains will remain high.  相似文献   

Stability analysis of shotcrete supported crown of NATM tunnels with discontinuity layout optimization          下载免费PDF全文

Yiming Zhang  Xiaoying Zhuang  Roman Lackner 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2018,42(11):1199-1216

For tunnel constructed by New Austrian Tunnelling Method, the crown is the upper part of tunnel section, constructed during excavation process and supported by shotcrete. The stability of the crown has great influence on the safety of tunnel itself and the buildings above, which correlates, among others, with geometrical setup of tunnel and material properties of shotcrete and soil/rock. In this paper, aiming at analyzing the stability of shotcrete supported crown, a recently presented numerical method discontinuity layout optimization is adopted, which introduces a great amount of potential discontinuities cross over one another and provides a wide search space for efficient upper limit analysis. In the analysis, a well‐established hydration model of cementitious material is implemented for accounting the hydration of shotcrete. Then assumptions based on convergence‐confinement method are used for accounting the 3‐dimensional effect in 2‐dimensional analysis, finally providing time‐space–dependent assessments of stability of shotcrete supported crown.  相似文献   

基于概率积分法的采动坡体稳定性预测与分析          下载免费PDF全文

王猛  孙丽丽  薄怀志 《山东国土资源》2018,34(12)

地下采煤会引起地表沉降、变形,甚至引发山体、河堤滑坡等地质灾害。采动坡体的稳定性研究一直是采矿工程中实际关心的问题。该文首先介绍分析了概率积分法移动变形稳态、动态预测模型以及基于极限平衡理论的单滑面采动坡体稳定性预测模型,提出了使用概率积分法结合Knothe时间函数对采动坡体稳定性进行预测分析的方法,并使用C#及XML Schema语言编制了相关的计算程序。最后,结合一个工程实例对采动坡体稳定性和动态变化过程进行了预测与分析,通过实测数据验证了提出方法的可行性,得出了采动引起的坡体下沉是影响坡体稳定性的主要因素,并提出了在坡体拉伸阶段进行注浆加固的方法。  相似文献   

青州市表层土壤元素地球化学组合特征研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

姜冰  刘阳  颜丙鹏 《山东国土资源》2018,34(9)

聚类分析和因子分析可以获得土壤元素地球化学组合特征及其差异性。对青州市表层土壤样品数据进行分析研究,通过聚类分析,绘制表层土壤元素聚类谱系图,将23种元素或指标分为5个元素组合簇群及2个单元素簇,研究各元素间的组合特征,探讨其相关性、聚集性及其指示意义;通过因子分析,找出有代表性的因子,用其代表变量,绘制典型因子得分等值线图,并从中分析不同元素组合的区域分布基于何种因素,用11个代表性因子的分布特征就基本可以代表青州市表层土壤23项原始变量的分布特征,并对F1,F2,F3主因子进行了地质解释。聚类分析与因子分析相结合,利于表层土壤中元素的共生组合特征及其差异性研究,利于对研究区表层土壤异常进行归纳总结。  相似文献